Best NBA bets: Expect a low score in both Game 7s on Sunday

Best NBA bets: Expect a low score in both Game 7s on Sunday

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With the 2021-22 NBA regular season now in the books, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will provide daily picks during the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals. All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Latest odds:

less than 207

Much of this information will apply to both games on Sunday. Spoiler alert: we’re picking up the bass on each of them. Here are the combined point totals in the last 12 games 7:

  • 2021 Falcons-76ers: 199
  • 2021 Bucks-Nets: 216 (OT)
  • Clippers-Mavericks 2021: 237
  • 2020 Nuggets-Clippers: 193
  • Celtics-Raptors 2020: 179
  • Rockets-Thunder 2020: 206
  • Nuggets-Jazz 2020: 156
  • 2019 Raptors-76ers: 182
  • 2019 Blazers-Nuggets: 196
  • 2019 Nuggets-Spurs: 176
  • Warriors-Rockets 2018: 193
  • Cavs-Celtics 2018: 166

The average point total here is 191.6 points. Only three of these games managed 200 points. Go back and spread out the sample if you want. Throughout history, Games 7 have tended to score very, very low.

There are a number of plausible explanations for that. I will offer some. The tension at the beginning and end of matches tends to limit scoring in the first and last minutes. Both defenses have spent six games getting to know the opposing offense, so it’s very difficult to throw plays at them they haven’t seen yet. Rotations tend to be shortened to paltry degrees, with top players often playing 48 minutes if necessary. Those are the players who create the most shots for their team. If they are too tired to generate offense, their entire team will have trouble scoring.

Now let’s consider this in the context of Bucks-Celtics, specifically. The average point total in the series is 205.5. The total point line is set at 207, and that doesn’t take into account the typical Game 7 slump. It doesn’t take into account the exhaustion these teams will face playing Sunday afternoon after struggling Friday night in one city. different. He expects Giannis Antetokounmpo to continue to carry an unrealistic load. The Bucks star has attempted 27 or more field goals in seven playoff games in his career. Five have been alone in this series. Sooner or later, these teams will run out of fuel. Expect a low-scoring Game 7 as a result. The choice: Under 207

Latest odds:

Less than 205

This series has had a slightly different trend than Bucks-Celtics. He started off with an insanely high score, but the last four games he’s averaged just 199.5 points. The Suns are shooting 41 percent from 3 and the Mavericks aren’t far behind at 38.5 percent. If we’re expecting a decline in shooting due to Game 7 jitters, especially away from Dallas on the road, it doesn’t seem likely this game will be played to 100 unless Luka Doncic goes absolutely nuclear. The Choice: Under 205

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