Climate change: global warming may exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius in at least one of the next five years

At least one year between now and 2026 has a 48% chance of exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming above pre-industrial levels, a temperature rise seen as a threshold for more extreme changes. impacts of climate change — according to a study carried out with the World Meteorological Organization. Scientists warn that the five-year forecast reveals a future in which temperatures above 1.5 degrees Celsius could occur for longer periods of time.

According to the Annual to Decennial Global Climate Update, run by the UK Met Office, the annual average global near-surface temperature for any year over the next five years is forecast to be between 1.1 and 1.7 degrees Celsius. higher than pre-industrial levels. or the average temperatures between the years 1850 and 1900.

The study notes that “there is only a small chance” that the five-year average will exceed the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius.

in 2015 Paris Agreement, 189 countries set a goal of limiting the long-term global average temperature rise to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius. The climate treaty includes agreements by the parties to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and track them. A recent UN report warned that the the world is “very deviant” to meet emissions targets, and the new study indicates that time is running out.

“This study shows, at a high level of scientific skill, that we are getting considerably closer to temporarily reaching the lower target of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change,” World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas. . “The 1.5°C figure is not a random statistic. It is more an indicator of the point at which climate impacts will become increasingly harmful to people and, in fact, to the entire planet.”

Dr. Leon Hermanson of the Met Office said a year of global temperatures above that mark would not exceed the threshold of the Paris Agreement. “But it does reveal that we are getting closer to a situation where 1.5°C could be exceeded for an extended period,” he said in a statement.

The scientists also found “a very high probability” that one of the next five years will be the warmest on recordsurpassing the current record set in 2016. And the data revealed more than a 90% chance that the average temperatures from 2022 to 2026 will be higher than those recorded during the last five-year period.

At the regional level, the data suggest a higher probability of drier conditions in southwestern Europe and southwestern North America, while wetter conditions are forecast in northern Europe, the Sahel region of Africa, and Australia during 2022.

“As long as we continue to emit greenhouse gases, temperatures will continue to rise,” Taalas said. “And along with that, our oceans will continue to warm and acidify, sea ice and glaciers will continue to melt, sea levels will continue to rise, and our weather will become more extreme. Arctic warming is disproportionately high and what happens in the Arctic It affects us all.”

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